Strategy is deciding what you will not do
Vision says where you’re heading. Strategy says which road, for whom, and what you’ll leave behind.
Tonight you decide where to focus
- Explain the difference between vision, strategy, goals, roadmap and backlog
- Make five strategic choices, including what you will not do
- Name the gap you own against today’s alternatives, with the evidence for it
- Sketch a value model and a business model hypothesis with one willingness-to-pay test
- Choose a North Star with input metrics, and write your roadmap as now, next and later bets
OUTPUT · Strategy on a Page, with competitor gap and business model, in 02-strategy.md
From vision to backlog: five layers
- VISIONThe change you want to see for your customers. Measured in years. Rarely changes.
- STRATEGYThe choices for getting there: who, need, promise, advantage, not doing.
- GOALSMeasurable outcomes for the next few months. Behaviour, not features shipped.
- ROADMAPThe bets you’ll make, in order: now, next, later. Changes as you learn.
- BACKLOGThe ordered work for the current bet. Changes weekly.
Each layer answers “why?” for the one below it. If it can’t, one of them is wrong.
A vision that guides decisions
“TutorDesk: the all-in-one AI-powered platform transforming education.”
“Every independent tutor spends their evenings teaching, not chasing bookings, and no learner’s request goes unanswered.” It names who, the change, and a test.
Ask
- Which feature idea would each version rule out?
- Could a competitor say the weak version word for word?
- How would you know you were getting closer?
- Whose life does your own vision leave out?
Strategy is five choices
- WHOThe narrow group you serve first, and why them before anyone else.
- NEEDThe one struggle you solve for them, in their words, backed by evidence.
- PROMISEWhat they get from you that today’s alternatives don’t give them.
- ADVANTAGEWhy you can deliver it better: insight, access, focus or skill. Be honest.
- NOT DOINGThe good ideas and customers you are choosing to turn down, for now.
A choice only counts if a sensible person could have chosen the opposite.
TutorDesk’s trade-offs
“TutorDesk for tutors, agencies, schools and parents, with payments, video and homework.”
Who: solo tutors with 5–30 regular learners. Need: requests lost in WhatsApp and email. Promise: every request answered in one place. Not doing: agencies, video, payments, for now.
Ask
- What does TutorDesk give up by saying no to agencies?
- What is TutorDesk’s honest advantage today?
- What evidence would reopen “not doing payments”?
- Which of your own no’s would hurt to write down?
Competitor analysis: the gap we own
- ALTERNATIVESDoing nothing, WhatsApp plus a paper diary, a shared calendar, booking apps
- WHAT USERS VALUEFrom your conversations: no missed requests, nothing new for parents to install
- WHERE EACH FALLS SHORTWhatsApp loses requests in busy weeks; full booking systems feel heavy for 15 learners
- THE GAPEvery request in one place, without asking parents to change much
- THE PROOFWhy we believe it: 4 of 6 tutors lost a request in a message thread (illustrative)
Write the gap in one sentence, with the evidence behind it. “Nobody does this” is not a gap.
One North Star, a few inputs
- VALUE MOMENTThe moment a customer gets what they came for. Start here, not with revenue.
- NORTH STAROne number that counts those moments over time. It rises only if customers win.
- INPUTSTwo to four numbers your work can move this week that drive the North Star.
- GUARDRAILA number that must not get worse while you push, such as errors or complaints.
- VANITY CHECKWould this number rise even if nobody got value? Then it’s vanity. Drop it.
A good North Star measures value delivered. Revenue tends to follow it, not lead it.
TutorDesk’s North Star
“Our North Star is sign-ups: 500 tutors by summer.”
North Star: lesson requests confirmed per week. Inputs: tutors sharing their link, requests sent through it, requests confirmed within 24 hours. Guardrail: double bookings.
Ask
- How could sign-ups rise while tutors get no value?
- Which input could you move this week?
- What would you see if the guardrail failed?
- What is the confirmed-request moment in your product?
A value model on the back of an envelope
- CUSTOMER VALUEWhat the customer gains. Illustrative: 2 hours of admin saved a month × £30 = £60.
- PRICEWhat you charge; well below that value. Illustrative: £8 a month.
- COST TO SERVEWhat each customer costs you: hosting, messages, support. Illustrative: £2 a month.
- MARGINPrice minus cost to serve. Illustrative: £8 − £2 = £6 a tutor a month, or 75%.
- UNKNOWNSWhat you’re guessing. Will tutors pay at all? Are the hours really saved?
Customer value is what they gain; revenue is the share you capture. Never add the two together.
Business model hypothesis and a willingness-to-pay test
- WHO PAYSThe tutor, not the parent: the tutor gets the value and makes the decision
- HOW MUCHAn assumption in loop 1: £8 a month (illustrative), not yet tested
- HOW THEY FIND YOUTutor groups and word of mouth; every parent who books sees the tutor’s link
- CHEAPEST HONEST TESTA priced fake door, or a pre-order conversation that asks for a commitment
- THRESHOLD FIRSTWritten before the test, e.g. 3 of 10 tutors commit at the price (illustrative)
In loop 1 the price is a hypothesis. Write it down, test it cheaply, and set the bar before you look.
A roadmap of bets, not a calendar of features
Dated features
- March: calendar sync. April: payments. May: mobile app.
- Promises dates for work nobody has sized
- Success means shipping on time, used or not
- Hard to change without looking like failure
Bets: now, next, later
- Now: will parents request lessons through a link?
- Next: will tutors still use it after a month?
- Later: will tutors pay £8 a month? (illustrative)
- Each bet names the evidence that moves it forward
Now is specific and committed. Next is likely. Later is a direction you expect to change.
Claude Studio: red-team your strategy
Here is the draft strategy for [MY PRODUCT], plus a summary of the evidence I have so far: <strategy>[PASTE STRATEGY ON A PAGE]</strategy> <evidence>[PASTE EVIDENCE SUMMARY]</evidence> I’m about to commit the next six weeks to this, and I want to hear the strongest case against it now, because changing course is still cheap. Look at it the way a sceptical, well-informed investor would. Find the three weakest choices. For each, say what could go wrong, which part of my evidence contradicts or fails to support it, and the cheapest way to check. Separate what you know from what you’re guessing; if you’re unsure, say so. Done is three challenges and the one question I should answer first.
Check the response
- Each challenge quotes a specific line of the strategy
- Guesses are labelled as guesses
- Each challenge comes with a cheap way to check it
Workshop: your Strategy on a Page
Put your product’s strategy on one page that a stranger could read in two minutes and use to make a decision.
- Write a one-sentence vision, then five choices: who, need, promise, advantage, not doing (12 min)
- Fill the alternatives table, including doing nothing; write the gap you own in one sentence (8 min)
- Choose a North Star, two or three inputs and one guardrail (6 min)
- Sketch the value model and business model hypothesis; set the pay test’s threshold first (9 min)
- Write now, next and later bets; red-team the page with Claude and revise (8 min)
Strategy on a Page in product/02-strategy.md, beside your Experiment Card
Gate: Strategy on a Page
- The vision describes a change for a named customer and rules out at least one feature idea
- All five choices are filled in; NOT DOING lists two things a sensible founder might do
- Alternatives include doing nothing; the gap we own is one sentence with its evidence
- Value model and business model hypothesis: who pays, how much, a pay test with a threshold
- The North Star counts a value moment; now, next and later bets, with “now” the Experiment Card
- One change made after the red team is shown, with the reason
NEXT · Week 3, Plan: MVP objectives and the experience. Bring your Strategy on a Page and results.
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